Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71a0ca7a27f5eafc847ead0bcaa2be7999f49e4789263c6c753bc9a49df75feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 33c | 2,500$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 1,874$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 8c | 1,874$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…5369backed Yes | 1c | 1,866$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked No | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 78c | 777$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.1wins | -0.46per pick | 64cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 55c | 540$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…5296backed No | 40c | 362.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed No | 30c | 324.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked No | 42c | 203.59$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 171.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed Yes | 71c | 40.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 42c | 31.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on February 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.