CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71ad72d6c2ff77d0ff0a322a9fc0fe6cc0cdfd1e03120ead7877c1c7df3f2677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lavkedof Lavked, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf03c…add8backed Black Phoenix | 58c | 7,267$4,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lavked | 49c | 1,904$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.86 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…869ebacked Black Phoenix | 61c | 942$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.62 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Lavked | 39c | 914.24$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.73 | 1,605 | 52.6%845 W · 760 L | +57.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…1963backed Black Phoenix | 55c | 736$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.48 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lavked | 45c | 658.9$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.17 | 4,040 | 50.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed Black Phoenix | 48c | 630$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 309 | 49.2%152 W · 157 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Lavked | 64c | 609.77$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 2,599 | 47.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L | -30.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Lavked | 39c | 510.24$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.24 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Lavked | 51c | 502$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Lavked | 50c | 450$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.35 | 357 | 48.2%172 W · 185 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911f…7e46backed Lavked | 52c | 397.47$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Lavked | 55c | 394.38$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.52 | 404 | 39.6%160 W · 244 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lavked | 36c | 379.84$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.91 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Lavked | 53c | 366.86$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.97 | 2,610 | 51.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Lavked | 35c | 322.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.42 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Black Phoenix | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Lavked | 44c | 300$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.6 | 441 | 44.2%195 W · 246 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked Lavked | 51c | 291.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lavked | 29c | 278.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.78 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Lavked | 45c | 277.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.56 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…f61abacked Lavked | 37c | 270$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked Black Phoenix | 46c | 259.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Lavked | 29c | 233.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.9 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0f59backed Black Phoenix | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Lavked | 14c | 212.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 390 | 40.8%159 W · 231 L | +30.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Black Phoenix | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,567 | 29.8%467 W · 1,100 L | -86.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Lavked | 45c | 199.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Lavked | 53c | 162.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Lavked | 50c | 161.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Black Phoenix | 54c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 554 | 41.2%228 W · 326 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…c84bbacked Lavked | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…b282backed Lavked | 52c | 147.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Black Phoenix | 47c | 145.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 676 | 45%304 W · 372 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Lavked | 38c | 135.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Lavked | 37c | 132.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 2,608 | 30.9%807 W · 1,801 L | -103.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Black Phoenix | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 2,343 | 46.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L | -49.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Lavked | 50c | 123.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 228 | 38.2%87 W · 141 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Lavked | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1,318 | 51.7%682 W · 636 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Lavked | 46c | 108.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked Black Phoenix | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 220 | 56.8%125 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed Lavked | 52c | 99.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9b…124dbacked Lavked | 52c | 96.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lavked | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Black Phoenix | 54c | 83.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Lavked | 51c | 76.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae95…38fbbacked Lavked | 52c | 72.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Lavked | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Black Phoenix | 61c | 66.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 462 | 47.8%221 W · 241 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Black Phoenix | 19c | 64.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 97 | 29.9%29 W · 68 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Lavked | 38c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…bc59backed Lavked | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…9ac5backed Black Phoenix | 60c | 58.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Lavked | 45c | 57.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 490 | 50.6%248 W · 242 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…e4a3backed Lavked | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Black Phoenix | 52c | 51.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…8118backed Black Phoenix | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Black Phoenix | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,454 | 34.4%845 W · 1,609 L | -189.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Lavked | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 789 | 52%410 W · 379 L | +26.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Lavked | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,034 | 54.9%568 W · 466 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Black Phoenix | 48c | 45.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,888 | 36.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L | -197.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Lavked | 44c | 45.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 690 | 41.9%289 W · 401 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Lavked | 30c | 44.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 4,897 | 37.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L | -245.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Lavked | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 230 | 56.1%129 W · 101 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Black Phoenix | 61c | 40.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 746 | 33.4%249 W · 497 L | -48.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…fd70backed Lavked | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…f2eabacked Lavked | 50c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…5d0cbacked Black Phoenix | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed Lavked | 44c | 28.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Black Phoenix | 49c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 592 | 2.9%17 W · 575 L | -219.6wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 10-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Black Phoenix | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 519 | 69.2%359 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Lavked | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 WinnerLavked won
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 WinnerLavked won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.