World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71d106ba456c4064e66fca1b16c17b6eef8cbc85b825de76aa26bbec23fa6d58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 1,115$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 602.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 8c | 474.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 19c | 450.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 414.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 329.52$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 4c | 309.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 270.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 258.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked No | 79c | 254.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 17c | 178.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 177.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 16c | 168$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 163.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 8c | 147.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 15c | 124.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 15c | 101.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…fe53backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 23c | 84.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 14c | 83.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 83.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 24c | 76.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 68.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…96d7backed No | 76c | 65.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 65.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 19c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 60.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 21c | 55.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 54.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 52.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 48.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 47.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 44.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 35.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.