TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,393 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3abd…1dd3backed Yes0c6,960$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes30c732.61$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.027623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No76c690.45$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.395957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes24c679.59$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.45052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes24c575.32$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.45843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe718…1e2bbacked No73c442.46$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.46785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed No78c357.56$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.562955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No76c329.45$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9223551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No75c325.24$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.331838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-39.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No68c319.1$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.421844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes34c314.23$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.352454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffdd…40debacked No71c309.25$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c282.47$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9346330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No64c256.77$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2921854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.745916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No72c247.39$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.775054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c233.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7310414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes41c227.91$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0810629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c225.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9439231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No69c222.44$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.965223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No68c219.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4914959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No74c217.85$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1212055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes28c213$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.894240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes23c200.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.112626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed No78c197.04$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes26c191.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No76c174.78$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.365072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes29c155.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+50.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes10c154.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes32c145.51$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.893351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c138.44$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No47c138.36$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.513551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf689…6b6dbacked No74c134.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes22c134.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1613646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes28c133.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3918342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes34c132.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes26c129.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.591816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes20c128.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.251520%3 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No72c125.73$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c123.51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5923044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c121.44$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8112640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes24c119.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.754862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed No80c113.03$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.036955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c105$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No73c104.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8318662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c104.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes29c101.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.47741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa123…8b24backed No66c101.61$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No66c100.47$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7413155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x199a…f436backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3728558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes23c96.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2414351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes31c95.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2513357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2749…e996backed Yes27c93.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes24c92.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.293161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c88.62$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6623459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes26c86.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.63212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed No78c84.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.82458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.033360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes30c74.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.372733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No62c74.27$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.574566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c73.33$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.827438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c71$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes23c66.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.917353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed No74c62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.112777.8%21 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No79c60.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.816960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a2e…64a4backed No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.215766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes25c57.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1627143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes25c54.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes37c54.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c53.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.312055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No79c53.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f17…bc44backed No48c52.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.241963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c51.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3932639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes53c50.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.533366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Yes26c49.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No28c47.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.226632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes31c46.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.544645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes35c42.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c41.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8434354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes25c41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.416357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd63a…90a6backed No80c40.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.23887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x468e…5548backed No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes65c39.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick71cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes65c38.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252544%11 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked No40c37.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.535135.3%18 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No42c36.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.116346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes76c36.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.583321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No78c35.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.898959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No77c33.2$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5620065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes57c32.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.782759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1218669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.