Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x722c282b9d890bdd2710b3f81751691569bf0c6575949fdae33cea900c517869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 365.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 255$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 239.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 237$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 227.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 226.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 210.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 182.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 176.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 170.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 168.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 13c | 160.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 77c | 154.5$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 152.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 139.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 131.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 123$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 120.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 115.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 28c | 89.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 77.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 74.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 71.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 26c | 67.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 18c | 66.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 26c | 63.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 25c | 63.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 28c | 59.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 57.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 56.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 22c | 53.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 80c | 49.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 25c | 47.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 25c | 47.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 47.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 45.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 71c | 42.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 78c | 40.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 40.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 37.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 30c | 37.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 33.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 30.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 68c | 24.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 23.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…de1dbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.