Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf386cf59b3753293b1662fdd62d0e883b0915b3820af3e0b4cf4127a781f2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 664.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 12c | 500.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 4c | 468.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 37c | 429.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 394.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 329.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 313$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 17c | 301.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 20c | 247.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 240.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 199.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 192$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 186$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 176.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 171.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 154.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 20c | 132.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 36c | 120.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 119.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 113.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 23c | 96.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 21c | 86.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 76.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 69.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 20c | 61.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 26c | 60.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 58.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 79c | 51.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 23c | 45.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 25c | 41.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 77c | 38.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 33.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 33.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 30.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 27.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 20.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.