Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9392daa75643ea9e626434b487569f839ee12fe3e1fa8d424d2e27dd45e1bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 1,010$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 52c | 816.93$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.93 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 806.98$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 563.52$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cc…a6a1backed Yes | 44c | 517.47$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 401.68$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 47c | 375.1$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 292$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…2590backed No | 5c | 291.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 46c | 266.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 43c | 246.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.49 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 215.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 213.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 51c | 208.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 75c | 203.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 195.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 175.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 64c | 168.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 48c | 166.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 73c | 164.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 161.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 160.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 10c | 159.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 63c | 157.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 63c | 152.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 48c | 151.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 23c | 148.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 148$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 147.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 142.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 37c | 140.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 139.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 139.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 134.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 130.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 39c | 128.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 122.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 121.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 56c | 120.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 112.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 103.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 96.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 93.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 59c | 91.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 86.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 86.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 85.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 82.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 82.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 75c | 80.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 73.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 71.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 48c | 68.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 66.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 60c | 63.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 60.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 59.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 35c | 58.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 30c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 57.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 57.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 63c | 57.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 47c | 56.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 43c | 54.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 46c | 54.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 54c | 53.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 41c | 53.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 47c | 53.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 53.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 28c | 52.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…a0b7backed Yes | 60c | 52.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 52.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 47c | 52.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 47c | 50.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 40c | 47.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 38c | 46.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 50c | 45.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.