Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x722d4386970089665fdfdfea74e4ba8aeebce1b072b311b99873d7c857c6513f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 62c | 4,627$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.09 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 79c | 1,832$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.92 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 1,679$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.23 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 1,324$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.92 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Over | 39c | 1,110$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.26 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 20c | 1,006$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.25 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c6b0backed Over | 55c | 926.21$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 51c | 909.79$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.57 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 800.19$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.17 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 740.62$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 45c | 654.14$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.36 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 20c | 594.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 56c | 575.35$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.75 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…eea0backed Under | 12c | 473.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 388$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 370.07$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 301.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.1 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 21c | 237.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 224$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 38c | 209.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 61c | 205.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…4e2cbacked Over | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 65c | 180.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…f419backed Over | 66c | 177.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 48c | 174.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 62c | 152.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 130.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 102.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 54c | 91.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 39c | 86.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 40c | 85.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…9551backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Over | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 56c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 53c | 56.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…2e5bbacked Over | 62c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 39c | 36.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 54c | 30.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…ff1cbacked Over | 62c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.