Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e55c7d9341147d0c4cc7869a3aa0daf0543d97b069f556647796df389c19760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 40c | 6,115$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.09 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 19c | 2,000$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.77 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 1,896$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.11 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 1,796$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.9 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,729$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.01 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 79c | 1,524$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.38 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 957.35$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.01 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 77c | 851.64$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.78 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 25c | 311.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 29c | 299.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 62c | 252.05$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 60c | 207.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 10c | 182$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 158.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 131.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 61c | 130.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Over | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 14c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 61c | 90.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 19c | 82.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 39c | 76.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…ff1cbacked Over | 40c | 47.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 61c | 43.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 41.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 60c | 25.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.