Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x724d162c63dd5790099e5615ef85ca638916e78842acf23ed4655fc0cdb77ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 935.88$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.32 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 40c | 625.29$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.82 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 60c | 328.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 281.85$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 237.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 180.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 170.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 162.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 131.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 116.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 90.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 59c | 82.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 46c | 73.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 35c | 72.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 40c | 67.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 53c | 66.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 66.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 61c | 64.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 62.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 65c | 60.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 60.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 58.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 56.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 80c | 46.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 42c | 42.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 37.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 39c | 36.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 36.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 40c | 29.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 41c | 25.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 47c | 25.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.