Tennis · resolved market
ITF Metzingen: Johan Nikles vs Niels Ratiu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72581dba3f80d21898ff1d820b553c4a71c6d2b5e53120d455f2999a33e6b8e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johan Niklesof Johan Nikles, Niels Ratiu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Niels Ratiu | 50c | 7,682$3,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,817.98 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Johan Nikles | 61c | 5,146$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.75 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Johan Nikles | 49c | 2,560$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Niels Ratiu | 39c | 1,961$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.91 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Johan Nikles | 53c | 1,936$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.93 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…fd61backed Niels Ratiu | 50c | 642$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Johan Nikles | 55c | 207.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Niels Ratiu | 39c | 193.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Niels Ratiu | 37c | 108.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Johan Nikles | 55c | 96.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Johan Nikles | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Niels Ratiu | 34c | 89.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Johan Nikles | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Niels Ratiu | 46c | 79.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Johan Nikles | 72c | 78.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Johan Nikles | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Johan Nikles | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Johan Nikles | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Johan Nikles | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Johan Nikles | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Johan Nikles | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…6e26backed Niels Ratiu | 17c | 67.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Niels Ratiu | 39c | 60.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Johan Nikles | 55c | 59.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Johan Nikles | 66c | 58.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Johan Nikles | 48c | 53.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Niels Ratiu | 28c | 51.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Johan Nikles | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Johan Nikles | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Johan Nikles | 56c | 43.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…fd02backed Niels Ratiu | 34c | 40.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…6b00backed Johan Nikles | 72c | 31.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 476 | 51.9%247 W · 229 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Johan Nikles | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Johan Nikles | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Johan Nikles | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.