College Football · resolved market
Spread: Michigan (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72679d021a5952504470b1ce4ae0cd217a947ee255c108e7b75afd9763fcfd9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwesternof Michigan, Northwestern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Michigan | 48c | 253,583$121,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121,617.27 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Northwestern | 52c | 175,000$91,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,000 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Northwestern | 52c | 49,900$25,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,952 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Northwestern | 52c | 11,111$5,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,333.28 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Northwestern | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern | 52c | 7,202$3,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,456.89 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Northwestern | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Michigan | 49c | 1,024$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Michigan | 48c | 979.9$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.35 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Northwestern | 52c | 732.37$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.12 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Michigan | 48c | 365$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Northwestern | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Michigan | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan | 44c | 186.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Northwestern | 44c | 104.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Michigan | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Michigan | 49c | 79.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northwestern | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Northwestern | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan (-11.5)this page
- Michigan vs. NorthwesternMichigan won
- Michigan vs. Northwestern: O/U 41.5Over won
- O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan (-10.5)Northwestern won
- Spread: Michigan (-9.5)Northwestern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.