College Football · resolved market
Spread: Michigan (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e2b94ca5e2acbf7266c0ce5c75f8d1f4822f7dce2ccbf5ddadfc610a080fea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwesternof Michigan, Northwestern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc119…3c7fbacked Michigan | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008c…6db0backed Northwestern | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Michigan | 49c | 10,000$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.99 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Northwestern | 52c | 9,930$5,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,796.8 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Northwestern | 52c | 9,670$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,641.44 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan | 48c | 9,153$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.62 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan | 48c | 6,666$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.68 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b8e1backed Northwestern | 52c | 2,903$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Northwestern | 51c | 1,529$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.21 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…5ec1backed Michigan | 49c | 1,125$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Northwestern | 51c | 1,108$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.12 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Michigan | 49c | 990$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.1 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Northwestern | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Northwestern | 53c | 942.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.19 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Michigan | 47c | 942.96$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.19 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…874abacked Northwestern | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Michigan | 44c | 891.04$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.06 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Northwestern | 53c | 549.06$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Northwestern | 50c | 505$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Michigan | 50c | 480$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northwestern | 50c | 440.12$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.91 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Michigan | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Northwestern | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Michigan | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Northwestern | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Michigan | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Michigan | 48c | 155.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Northwestern | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Northwestern | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Northwestern | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Michigan | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Michigan | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Northwestern | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Michigan | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Northwestern | 53c | 24.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Northwestern | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan (-10.5)this page
- Michigan vs. NorthwesternMichigan won
- Michigan vs. Northwestern: O/U 41.5Over won
- O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan (-11.5)Northwestern won
- Spread: Michigan (-9.5)Northwestern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.