Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x727ef80e358e8f3bbc14c0582db4d6b6d5ecf62ebb6e89666638a4b8fe4be8ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 3c | 1,029$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 21c | 945.18$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 79c | 894.93$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.94 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 618.6$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.3 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 79c | 503$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 26c | 320.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 80c | 314.74$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 21c | 271.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Under | 21c | 195.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 66c | 184.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 76c | 117.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 88.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 78c | 87.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 79.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 80c | 46.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.