Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a42b562f69550cf8c2906e4513fb13442f8dc9a3d2baa5e902877f8bfaef676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 36c | 4,032$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.84 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 1,667$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.67 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,405$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.91 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 78c | 1,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 34c | 721.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.51 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 610.99$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.8 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 64c | 406$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.84 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 25c | 396.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.06 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 76c | 387$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 27c | 378.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.43 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 27c | 370$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 29c | 347.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.72 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 29c | 344.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.58 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 343.34$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 64c | 294.43$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed Under | 77c | 294$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 65c | 293.06$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.49 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 64c | 260$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 32c | 245.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 236.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 229$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.99 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 62c | 191.91$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 23c | 175.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 126.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 66c | 96.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 19c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 66c | 67.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 60.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 66c | 58.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 49c | 51.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 66c | 49.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 29c | 40.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 22.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…84fbbacked Under | 66c | 20.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 66c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.