TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,412 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over59c5,458$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,257.9419044.7%85 W · 105 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.133056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under53c3,008$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.1146156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under53c2,503$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.51,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under43c1,314$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.713,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Over57c1,140$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.191566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under41c1,129$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.231,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over57c1,122$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.627837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under42c1,055$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.2897146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over48c999.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.995042%21 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under43c703.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2815748.4%76 W · 81 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under45c684.65$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.094551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24615858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under43c528.37$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5598945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over43c522.26$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.324551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under53c479.5$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8722042.7%94 W · 126 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under41c472.72$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8217258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over51c395.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.724139%16 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under37c391.48$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3152639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under43c353.23$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.521,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under43c309$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6491553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10518967.2%127 W · 62 L+21.1wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12313158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under52c293.96$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8147240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under42c293.67$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3470249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Over68c290.79$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4118774.3%139 W · 48 L+33.5wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+39.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over41c273.83$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.5139567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under43c260$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.811759%69 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under41c260$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.612162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over52c230$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.46662.1%41 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Over45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11010043%43 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under52c186.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4482044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Over54c185.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.741553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over55c182.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.948853.4%47 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under52c171.68$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2730957%176 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…5292backed Under50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under41c156$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9614660.3%88 W · 58 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under41c156$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9614459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38e…8917backed Over64c154.56$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.377962%49 W · 30 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over65c152.6$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4122269.4%154 W · 68 L+31.4wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+33.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over65c152.6$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4115676.9%120 W · 36 L+32.7wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+43.9%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over51c151.68$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.211,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed Over65c151.64$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.458971.9%64 W · 25 L+17.2wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+51.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under35c138.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2348344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc02a…b43fbacked Over57c138$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.341457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Over57c133.81$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.024055%22 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under55c127.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8578344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.42860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.711244.6%50 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4116955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2910950.5%55 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14e3…810cbacked Over57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under32c84.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6892346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.813560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under43c75.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4168150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Over56c65.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under30c64.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2380249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under53c60.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210046%46 W · 54 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Over57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.782552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Over56c53.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9113518.5%25 W · 110 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308144.4%36 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133b…5856backed Over78c50.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.254858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Over57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.343250%16 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under44c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.092050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over37c37.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6729460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.098465.5%55 W · 29 L+16.4wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Over57c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.016341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d6b…8ffabacked Over54c34.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.953268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Under43c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.192661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Under45c32.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.721942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.816853.6%90 W · 78 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeceb…29a4backed Under43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Over57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.96939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Under43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.313557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under43c29.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.687037.1%26 W · 44 L-11.4wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-35.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Under44c28.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.383542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a1…c13bbacked Over55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.274100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Over47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.35641.1%23 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed Over56c24.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed Over55c23.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.887100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79cf…91abbacked Under47c23.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2444…4252backed Under44c23.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6681…abc8backed Under49c21.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4b…0b44backed Over75c20.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Over66c20.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Over57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd27c…d9b8backed Over58c19.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.