Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72864731bf375622c3a7d5a6eb8fa4a72b0013dcf7af88f875ba36f358cb737d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 57c | 264.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 259.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 221.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 197.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 47c | 193.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 124.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 28c | 102.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 97.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 50c | 95.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 90.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 85.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 49c | 76.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 39c | 71.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 71.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 56c | 69.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 67.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 66.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 32c | 65.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 54c | 60.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 58.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 55.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 39c | 49.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 63c | 48.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 62c | 48.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…1d1abacked No | 54c | 47.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 35c | 47.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 45c | 43.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 36c | 39.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 54c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 36c | 37.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 30c | 34.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 32.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…2778backed No | 52c | 31.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 51c | 31.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 64c | 29.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 45c | 29.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 50c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 48c | 21.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…6c58backed Yes | 64c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…0400backed Yes | 51c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…45febacked Yes | 59c | 18.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 14.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.