Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dbf6858d030a02a5c8ad34ac306f8fced049964b70d11315884ce04c3c8e63a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89ad…d1f3backed Yes | 0c | 13,502$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 2c | 891.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 39c | 777.76$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.82 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 433.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.34 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 23c | 393.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 4c | 283.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 264.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 16c | 240.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.99 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 59c | 227.11$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 220.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…3b88backed No | 44c | 210.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 194.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 162.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 146.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 21c | 137.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 77c | 126.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 78c | 124.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 17c | 123.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 120.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 10c | 118.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 114.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 22c | 97.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 27c | 89.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 23c | 74.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 39c | 61.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…a33fbacked No | 70c | 43.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 52c | 41.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 41.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 38c | 40.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 28.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 76c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 16.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.