Ligue 1 · resolved market
AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72a10cd684a0dbdfe26f54cd79502f995aea6f5416dbfc525eafb193d3fd02fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 12,535$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.15 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 21c | 1,989$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.75 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 1,263$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 18c | 1,249$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.51 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 23c | 515.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.24 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 21c | 494.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…8720backed Under | 80c | 364.37$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 23c | 286.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 23c | 226.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Under | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 77c | 140.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Under | 80c | 69.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 23c | 62.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked Over | 20c | 59.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Under | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…e809backed Under | 78c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a0…485dbacked Under | 78c | 17.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.