Ligue 1 · resolved market
AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e4e655d9dc2fe88f0e09b1921bf2eaa6ac9297fb02635d456e9c2386f8a5f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 4,627$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.87 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 2,405$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.09 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 78c | 2,012$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.46 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 1,167$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.97 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 19c | 1,020$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 977.8$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.23 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 63c | 937.43$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.48 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 34c | 905.63$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 35c | 828.33$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…b5e6backed Over | 14c | 773$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 21c | 737.56$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.54 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 5c | 598.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 29c | 495.21$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 21c | 385.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 39c | 370.54$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 36c | 352.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 296.04$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 29c | 255.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 80c | 241.18$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Over | 22c | 184.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…47a4backed Over | 28c | 170.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 42c | 147.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 36c | 138.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 10c | 132.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 38c | 127.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Over | 22c | 121.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a7…aefcbacked Over | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 111.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 30c | 105.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Over | 30c | 105.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 14c | 97.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 59c | 96.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 41c | 90.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 36c | 74.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Over | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 73c | 59.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 59c | 48.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Under | 63c | 47.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 59c | 46.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Over | 27c | 45.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 25c | 44.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Under | 60c | 43.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked Under | 79c | 43.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 63c | 38.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 37c | 36.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 60c | 36.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 39c | 33.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 70c | 32.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 65c | 31.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 61c | 29.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Under | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 72c | 29.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 73c | 23.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 68c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Under | 79c | 22.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Under | 77c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 72c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 72c | 19.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 62c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 79c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Under | 79c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.