Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72b76c5dea8e0febbccd149d4db02d6a7b9e7dcf60cff8a7cb570bd76ffb8c85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 0c | 12,151$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 3c | 3,154$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 2,773$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,333$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.05 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 3c | 754.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 5c | 664.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 79c | 599.24$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.85 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 25c | 586.14$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…908bbacked Yes | 27c | 550.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 5c | 523.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 450.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 433.95$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 362.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 357.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 4c | 298.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 276.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 9c | 258.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 16c | 243.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 17c | 237.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 10c | 233.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 207.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 202.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 186.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 184.47$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 20c | 157.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 25c | 156.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 141.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 140.91$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 75c | 132.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 111.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 14c | 91.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 89.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 25c | 80.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 78.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 80c | 75.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 74.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…f04fbacked Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Yes | 31c | 64.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 20c | 56.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…b24fbacked No | 74c | 28.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 72c | 24.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.