Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ffd6188f8eab59d57d4836b4c67d993b61ead182bcd8e1d492166a42e146413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 2,338$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.22 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 1,531$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.94 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,519$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 32c | 1,494$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.99 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 905.1$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 877.7$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.23 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf036…2ffebacked Yes | 37c | 782.65$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 24c | 743.32$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.09 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 79c | 548.02$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 548$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 23c | 526.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 516$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 441.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.39 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 26c | 393.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 389$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 32c | 371.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 19c | 319.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 17c | 286.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 253.44$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 230.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 221.34$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 215.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 209.45$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 17c | 206.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 25c | 202.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 17c | 199.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 191.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 27c | 188.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 187.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 183.63$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 179.38$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 169.43$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 165.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 165.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 22c | 159.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 145.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 29c | 138.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 137.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 134.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 11c | 132.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…8c15backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 129.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 80c | 128.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 17c | 127.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 125.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 119.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 14c | 117.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 116.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 115.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 21c | 114.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 11c | 112.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 28c | 109.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 105.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 105.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 103.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 103$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54dd…cbaebacked Yes | 22c | 98.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 35c | 98.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 93.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 90.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 67c | 88.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 49c | 87.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 19c | 84.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 82.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 82.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 35c | 75.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 75.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 27c | 73.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 35c | 71.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…f04fbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 78c | 69.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 69.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 22c | 63.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 32c | 58.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 37c | 55.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 52.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 33c | 52.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 74c | 50.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 72c | 50.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 26c | 50.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 73c | 45.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 26c | 45.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 79c | 41.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 31c | 37.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 73c | 36.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 35.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 69c | 35.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 34.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 68c | 33.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.