Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3dc0eda32519f533458210275dddcf32b5d945f64b7d44dc1c29f56836085de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 1c | 12,542$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.16 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 3,878$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.21 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,151$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 1,796$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 661.2$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 504.56$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 36c | 479.78$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.08 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 61c | 463.3$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 63c | 407.11$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.75 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 63c | 379$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 373.74$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 4c | 337.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 316.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 7c | 259.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 232.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 217.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 205.72$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed No | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 191.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 175.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 60c | 172.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x620a…8aeebacked Yes | 41c | 169.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 29c | 153.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 55c | 135.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 116.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 105.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 100.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 35c | 97.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 71.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 69.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 65.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 41c | 55.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 61c | 52.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 43c | 50.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 49.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked Yes | 38c | 47.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 42c | 47.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 45.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 68c | 44.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 35c | 43.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 41.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 41.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 31c | 38.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 38.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 59c | 37.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 28c | 36.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 34.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 31.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 63c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 26.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 64c | 25.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 73c | 22.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 76c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.