Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72c6c30238b8a5eeb07c4492567122f1b9f2c7b3ae7d3a4e09ce0b44c27dc52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11c7…d675backed No | 57c | 99,021$56,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,579.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…b4aebacked Yes | 43c | 99,021$42,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,579.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed No | 53c | 928.96$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.46 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 39c | 700$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 58c | 507.22$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.62 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…a1debacked Yes | 62c | 495$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked No | 38c | 453$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 49c | 391.96$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed Yes | 41c | 350$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 276.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 59c | 190$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 29c | 178.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 68c | 177.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 176.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 64c | 163.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…1f7fbacked No | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…bc43backed Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…7aa9backed No | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 35c | 135.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…222dbacked No | 50c | 102.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 59c | 100.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked No | 52c | 97.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 64c | 92.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 59c | 90.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 85.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 43c | 65.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 38c | 60.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 51c | 60.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 57c | 53.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 48c | 51.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 58c | 51.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 33c | 43.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…51cbbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.