South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72e3fe8312720b9a037309067eec391ed6d9cd65f0c95943b61833b8abbd4f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 2,346$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.66 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 24c | 1,727$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.64 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 23c | 1,244$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.13 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 1,050$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.25 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 29c | 995.7$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 56c | 880.13$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.26 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 39c | 578.04$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.44 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 35c | 554.8$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.18 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 37c | 517.62$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.1 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 24c | 425.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Over | 63c | 370.44$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Over | 62c | 370.44$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 62c | 370.44$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.67 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 43c | 294.17$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 281.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 264.72$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Under | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…0144backed Under | 73c | 193.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 36c | 170.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 34c | 139.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked Under | 36c | 109$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 60c | 97.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 94.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 64c | 76.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 23c | 57.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 41c | 51.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 32c | 32.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 41c | 32.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…ce7fbacked Over | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 63c | 30.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 64c | 30.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 61c | 28.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe905…f7e2backed Under | 74c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed Under | 74c | 23.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…2516backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…2084backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Over | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…1bd5backed Over | 63c | 17.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Over | 64c | 16.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.