NFL · resolved market
Spread: MIN (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72e5663f3cf21ed1c7193bd34529a39f175c74051410633416d650681fd6fd7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MINof MIN, CIN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked MIN | 46c | 60,722$27,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,904 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked CIN | 54c | 25,000$13,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,500 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed CIN | 54c | 24,280$13,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,111.11 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked MIN | 47c | 17,334$8,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,187.02 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked CIN | 53c | 10,500$5,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,565 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked CIN | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked CIN | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed CIN | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed CIN | 53c | 906.09$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.11 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed CIN | 53c | 765.32$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.62 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed CIN | 55c | 717.62$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.69 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed CIN | 54c | 699.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked MIN | 46c | 562.38$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.69 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked MIN | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed MIN | 47c | 315$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed CIN | 55c | 220$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…9434backed MIN | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed CIN | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed MIN | 46c | 160.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed CIN | 53c | 95.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked CIN | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked MIN | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked MIN | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed MIN | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed MIN | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…0e57backed MIN | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked MIN | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked CIN | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: MIN (-3.5)this page
- Bengals vs. VikingsVikings won
- Spread: MIN (-1.5)MIN won
- Spread: MIN (-4.5)MIN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.