CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7344a8fed964c0f02adc58449138fbcd6effd136bf39f79964d654de4f78433d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof TheMongolz, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6902…b4cabacked TheMongolz | 31c | 6,091$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.78 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Astralis | 70c | 5,085$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.5 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed TheMongolz | 32c | 4,316$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.25 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed TheMongolz | 31c | 2,971$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.82 | 352 | 36.4%128 W · 224 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…c732backed Astralis | 68c | 2,388$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…d034backed Astralis | 68c | 2,080$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.74 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Astralis | 69c | 1,913$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.04 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Astralis | 70c | 912.86$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.27 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 68c | 777$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…e2e6backed Astralis | 69c | 342.78$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…30d5backed TheMongolz | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Astralis | 68c | 294.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed TheMongolz | 32c | 213$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Astralis | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 238 | 51.7%123 W · 115 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb9…0f15backed TheMongolz | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Astralis | 69c | 135.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 212 | 63.7%135 W · 77 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Astralis | 31c | 135.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…988dbacked TheMongolz | 30c | 77.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Astralis | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…a4b4backed Astralis | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Astralis | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Astralis | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Astralis | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.