TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof Astralis, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked TheMongolz33c22,461$7,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,318.543,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Astralis73c10,232$7,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,730.862965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Astralis71c7,754$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.928750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Astralis65c5,743$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.4912571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Astralis44c5,075$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.312,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab35…60f6backed TheMongolz0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105534.5%19 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Astralis57c4,557$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.171,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Astralis59c4,466$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84387047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Astralis42c4,005$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.5616152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz56c3,933$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.2276058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Astralis69c3,690$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.645267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Astralis72c3,547$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.8939970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TheMongolz33c3,215$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.156,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed TheMongolz37c3,036$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.8233452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x008b…c1cfbacked Astralis50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2006355.6%35 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x568e…6980backed TheMongolz4c2,359$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.363627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Astralis51c2,282$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.941,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked TheMongolz56c2,242$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.1981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked TheMongolz2c2,205$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8869624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed TheMongolz54c2,176$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.6724346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Astralis53c2,174$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.381,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed TheMongolz44c2,083$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.2141850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked TheMongolz58c1,902$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.344957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed TheMongolz40c1,830$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.364,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TheMongolz50c1,731$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.795,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed TheMongolz59c1,725$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.4737445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked TheMongolz23c1,607$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.4935940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Astralis58c1,440$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.7139248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Astralis74c1,333$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.267156.3%40 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Astralis52c1,240$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.1921737.3%81 W · 136 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed TheMongolz40c1,200$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47431444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed TheMongolz33c1,155$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.991,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked TheMongolz47c1,085$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.1727658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed TheMongolz33c1,011$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.9821528.8%62 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Astralis41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59081244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed TheMongolz42c999.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010133.7%34 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked TheMongolz19c983.91$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Astralis43c977.02$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.3823243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Astralis44c968.88$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.5732552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked TheMongolz54c962.01$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.2978963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b6…fdefbacked TheMongolz39c938.34$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9410337.9%39 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked TheMongolz28c936.33$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.934645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed TheMongolz57c876.95$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.5868753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Astralis67c767$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.0610945%49 W · 60 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed TheMongolz56c710.1$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.6646749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed TheMongolz27c700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1891,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Astralis67c692.01$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.7240950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked TheMongolz58c673.39$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5635550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed TheMongolz56c666.47$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2217538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed TheMongolz55c653.46$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4153746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Astralis45c644.17$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.2936554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed Astralis58c628$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.764766%31 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Astralis66c627.86$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.4719540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed TheMongolz37c522.39$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4210442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e573backed TheMongolz47c499.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2353447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed TheMongolz4c471.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.855438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed TheMongolz50c460.68$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3269635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Astralis59c459.97$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.331,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked TheMongolz49c428$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.583,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Astralis61c402.3$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4178348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Astralis48c399.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20813357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed TheMongolz50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19434156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed TheMongolz38c385.12$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3513743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed Astralis66c371.06$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1615373.2%112 W · 41 L+18.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked TheMongolz38c366.46$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2621519.1%41 W · 174 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Astralis70c359.63$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.194,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa932…3081backed Astralis67c357.87$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1173363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked TheMongolz33c345.92$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1919642.9%84 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked TheMongolz35c337.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.592,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Astralis66c316.47$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69254.3%50 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Astralis62c315.23$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7935449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed TheMongolz57c314.48$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.259054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked TheMongolz45c301.88$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4638454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed TheMongolz50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked TheMongolz36c291.18$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8331852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e9…d246backed Astralis75c287.13$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.226368.8%181 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed TheMongolz37c270.83$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1213748.9%67 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Astralis76c268.84$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.198862.5%55 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed TheMongolz49c263$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8261837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked TheMongolz34c255.68$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.242,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0311…f80ebacked TheMongolz21c253.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7318126.5%48 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d822backed TheMongolz38c253.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.289443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed TheMongolz28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.864439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…2602backed TheMongolz59c246.94$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.712557.6%72 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis49c245.96$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.512,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed TheMongolz16c244.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2724440.2%98 W · 146 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Astralis60c232$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2755950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Astralis62c228.41$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.822365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Astralis68c223.53$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5384037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3c…0518backed Astralis55c221.61$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.732619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed TheMongolz37c213.24$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.920332.5%66 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Astralis55c209.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.57051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed TheMongolz52c201.71$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8973658.2%428 W · 308 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed TheMongolz55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11023851.7%123 W · 115 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Astralis41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11853444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed Astralis44c199.98$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9911645.7%53 W · 63 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed TheMongolz40c199.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9513556.3%76 W · 59 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed TheMongolz54c197.48$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5460838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3c…0b28backed TheMongolz9c196.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed TheMongolz53c183.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1836749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.