Earnings · resolved market
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x734e47cbb4c21b28054f336b1fa0d576e27ce11d12ba9a97c38845e7505e3874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,408$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 44c | 850$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 56c | 775$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.8 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed No | 61c | 565.55$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 74c | 474.89$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 69c | 412.39$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 381.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.62 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 35c | 349.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 37c | 321.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…8fa9backed No | 70c | 275.79$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 40c | 247.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 234.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 35c | 210.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 62c | 174.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 164.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed No | 75c | 159.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 38c | 132.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 30c | 111$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 106$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed No | 74c | 67.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…7854backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 51c | 58.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 51.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 36c | 44.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…fe87backed No | 67c | 42.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…3f96backed No | 71c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…0bb8backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…ec07backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…1d20backed No | 67c | 32.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…3fb7backed No | 66c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…061bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…924fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 65c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked No | 65c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.