Europa Conference League · resolved market
SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73615e8f52134f9f817e9cd2df801199614e28a1262a9cc733d385dd26257216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3171…b991backed Under | 45c | 2,661$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.98 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 47c | 1,324$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.28 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 53c | 1,268$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.18 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 756.61$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.06 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 600.98$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.49 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Under | 56c | 580.92$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.41 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 63c | 386.49$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.49 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 372.31$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.38 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 57c | 362$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 46c | 312.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 291.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 51c | 276.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 265.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Over | 48c | 214$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 199.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 44c | 173$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Under | 58c | 151.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 51c | 147.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 37c | 140.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 37c | 137.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +75%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 33c | 104$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 87.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 49c | 78.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6b58backed Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 54c | 72.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 71c | 70.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 54c | 53.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 46c | 41.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 40c | 39.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 45c | 37.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 43c | 35.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…131dbacked Under | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 56c | 29.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Under | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: O/U 2.5this page
- SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: O/U 1.5Over won
- SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: O/U 3.5Under won
- SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: O/U 4.5Under won
- SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: O/U 5.5Under won
- SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen: SP La Fiorita O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: FC UNA Strassen (-1.5)FC UNA Strassen won
- Spread: FC UNA Strassen (-2.5)SP La Fiorita won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.