Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-07-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736a87f2b6d33d4cfe51eb2fc405ab40e0595042c14104275b6da745732f6640
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 6,697$5,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.74 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes | 23c | 3,728$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.91 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 24c | 3,216$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.71 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 1,587$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.27 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Yes | 4c | 1,121$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 20c | 1,119$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 874.39$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.85 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Yes | 26c | 680.29$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 644.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 19c | 593.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 19c | 589$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 336.81$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa8…50fbbacked Yes | 26c | 295.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 26c | 240$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…91e1backed Yes | 26c | 180.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 19c | 178$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5120…b26bbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 166.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 16c | 157.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 79c | 99.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 74c | 81.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Yes | 26c | 74.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 61.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Yes | 22c | 60.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed No | 73c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…e755backed No | 60c | 25.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 79c | 14.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-07-25?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.