World Politics · resolved market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7385bdc26ff171d5efebeebf1f8e9699a21877e3706c803341eabfb57fa1ee42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 64c | 541.39$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.34 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…b417backed Yes | 36c | 332.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…8515backed Yes | 35c | 284.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 30c | 122.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 67.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd5…91d1backed Yes | 33c | 51.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff13…6d35backed Yes | 38c | 48.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 60c | 41.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 71c | 34.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…eb24backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +326.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 25% and 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 30% and 35% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?No won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.