MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738c5d76fd1be9a85d7afd1331e48aaa3880d4a9d3254e75596ff994b20cf9f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 73c | 2,876$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 1,862$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 527.15$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 341.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.91 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 73c | 247.37$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 48c | 242.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 31c | 145.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 54c | 138.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 30c | 133.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 50c | 104.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 15c | 92.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 31c | 90.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 31c | 90.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 83.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Under | 52c | 83.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 41c | 68.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x654f…61eebacked Under | 54c | 46.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 33c | 36.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 64c | 35.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5this page
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.