MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd161726dc04e85ca12a2a86a8a8d2de72ac4fc255c30c1d3eb5f97cb42e92c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 39c | 6,959$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 6,179$3,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,965.81 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 5,925$3,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.44 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 48c | 1,990$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.08 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 1,937$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.31 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 1,245$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 696.19$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed New York Mets | 35c | 677$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.31 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 599.9$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 597.14$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.51 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 564.15$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed New York Mets | 4c | 512.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed New York Mets | 11c | 490.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed New York Mets | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 26c | 366.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed New York Mets | 23c | 363.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 332.83$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked New York Mets | 28c | 274.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 251.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.45 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 231.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked New York Mets | 40c | 223.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 218.93$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed New York Mets | 41c | 199.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked New York Mets | 5c | 198.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 49c | 196.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 187.76$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 177.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 149.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 138.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 131.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 131.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked New York Mets | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked New York Mets | 48c | 64.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 28c | 57.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 55.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed New York Mets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed New York Mets | 24c | 48.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 41.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 38.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed New York Mets | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…9c8bbacked New York Mets | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…f5a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…c86cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.