MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41873cc9b1d2a3c22284b51239c40b40eb8954a27e873e4023c728b8dc594f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 6,962$3,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,594.27 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 4,858$2,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,526.17 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 4,432$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.22 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 4,368$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.87 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 51c | 4,180$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.83 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 48c | 771.9$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.39 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 734.11$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.35 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 49c | 657.32$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.11 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 49c | 657.32$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.11 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 49c | 652.74$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.76 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 49c | 645.44$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.18 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 52c | 485.6$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.51 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 54c | 460$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 394.76$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.06 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 44c | 303.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 223.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 51c | 205.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Over | 52c | 201.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 44c | 87.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 51c | 69.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…2775backed Under | 49c | 67.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +94%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 48c | 66.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…1e6dbacked Under | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 41.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 45c | 36.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Over | 53c | 30.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 51c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…e905backed Over | 53c | 26.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 49c | 25.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 47c | 23.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.