South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738da3dbb7c448cc5f6b39085edadc280003fe2c86b8c2d192662ec443ce36b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 572.7$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 80c | 385.53$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 21c | 268.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 27c | 249.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 18c | 195.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 79c | 187.48$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 156.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed Over | 26c | 149.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed Over | 26c | 149.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 139.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 127.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 25c | 118.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked Over | 26c | 109.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 24c | 102.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed Over | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed Over | 26c | 84.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Over | 30c | 63.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 19c | 53.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a4…0182backed Under | 75c | 42.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c6…40babacked Under | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Under | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Under | 75c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527d…eadfbacked Under | 75c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…c36ebacked Under | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…eb0abacked Under | 76c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…cf55backed Under | 75c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 73c | 13.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)EC Bahia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.