NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x739a1a4948a1643ee4f63aaeac818c2df4a2cb19a8f04c81fc16a01affbd38ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7178…0c07backed Over | 51c | 9,219$4,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,660.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 52c | 7,409$3,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,556.2 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Over | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Under | 50c | 3,792$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 2,854$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.49 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 2,506$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.34 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 2,024$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 1,061$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.98 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 823$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.5 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 309.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 52c | 262.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…285ebacked Under | 53c | 154.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 154.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 51c | 152.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 50c | 100.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 50c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 66.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Under | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 50c | 50.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…b664backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Under | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…351fbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5this page
- Oilers vs. BruinsOilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.