Fifa International · resolved market
Uruguay to score first vs. Spain?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d6bb11ce278314e4f208c1b077809e3072d1e6d8d69d2eb3be17f7619d7b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,076$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.68 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,843$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.37 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 73c | 1,132$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.25 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 1,017$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.29 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 825.02$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.35 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 806.04$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.51 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed No | 74c | 594.31$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.52 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 452.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a4…6ed6backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 317.45$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 25c | 311$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…4629backed Yes | 26c | 309.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 250.01$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Yes | 29c | 207.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 180 | 28.3%51 W · 129 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…b59fbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 71c | 148.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 75c | 141$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…b615backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 632 | 29.3%185 W · 447 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…51a7backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 307 | 32.9%101 W · 206 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 26c | 72.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…6bdebacked Yes | 32c | 61.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c34…266dbacked No | 73c | 59.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 351 | 36.8%129 W · 222 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 202 | 27.2%55 W · 147 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed No | 75c | 41.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…cfa8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466d…ffb1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 29.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 74c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Uruguay to score first vs. Spain?this page
- Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?Yes won
- Uruguay vs. Spain: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.