Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73dd26ff8249c0c703d7fdb35da511dac9fa4e4538458316942c10034e5eb2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Ruud | 33c | 12,457$4,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,131.13 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Ruud | 13c | 6,808$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.08 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Alcaraz | 61c | 6,500$3,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.09 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Alcaraz | 64c | 1,645$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Ruud | 19c | 1,074$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ruud | 11c | 1,022$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ruud | 34c | 823.98$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Alcaraz | 61c | 755.01$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.46 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Alcaraz | 62c | 652.57$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.9 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Ruud | 33c | 550.02$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Alcaraz | 56c | 542.63$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.47 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Alcaraz | 56c | 536.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Alcaraz | 60c | 535.79$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.32 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Alcaraz | 72c | 407$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Ruud | 37c | 324.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Alcaraz | 80c | 258.02$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Alcaraz | 61c | 246.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 210$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…bacfbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 202.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Alcaraz | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Ruud | 42c | 195$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Ruud | 25c | 185.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Alcaraz | 79c | 183$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Ruud | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Alcaraz | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Ruud | 22c | 64.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Alcaraz | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…10cabacked Alcaraz | 80c | 30.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.