WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e0a4357c822e0429fed43543a5ca21f71e2e513f2101fb1274579c515529c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Golden State Valkyries, Indiana Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.98 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…ad6dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 6c | 4,879$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 39c | 4,416$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,693.8 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Golden State Valkyries | 41c | 3,566$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.05 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 896.5$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.62 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 867.86$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.66 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Golden State Valkyries | 41c | 789.66$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…667fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 12c | 505$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6d…468dbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 326$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 318.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Indiana Fever | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Indiana Fever | 61c | 196.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 174$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Golden State Valkyries | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 76.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Indiana Fever | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.