WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfda608908b51d2db06279d1a8f1dc6a2f9c6c489f88a67411d155c7a36446fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Valkyriesof Indiana Fever, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Indiana Fever | 43c | 15,964$6,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,859.35 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 8,852$4,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420.68 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 2,968$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.11 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 2,740$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.1 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…34d6backed Indiana Fever | 1c | 2,337$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 1,929$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.26 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…ad6dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 30c | 1,385$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 1,262$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.02 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Indiana Fever | 9c | 1,148$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Indiana Fever | 9c | 1,146$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 728.7$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.25 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 706.92$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.97 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 588.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.21 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Indiana Fever | 19c | 389$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 223.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 204.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 177.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 146.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Golden State Valkyries | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847b…274cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 79.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 75.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 72.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Golden State Valkyries | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Indiana Fever | 41c | 54.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 44.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 41.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 40.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 39.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…19cfbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 32.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Golden State Valkyries | 62c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 28.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 27.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 23.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc051…5fc3backed Golden State Valkyries | 64c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.