Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Sebastian Baez vs Reilly Opelka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e1aa2634e2b7cafe19974cf42f9f1e34992a55d38be773de425458457c9943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Opelkaof Baez, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Opelka | 72c | 5,025$3,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.04 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Baez | 28c | 4,042$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.32 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Opelka | 79c | 2,250$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.62 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baez | 26c | 1,094$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.44 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baez | 29c | 984.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.59 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Opelka | 73c | 951.64$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.34 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Opelka | 72c | 833.33$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baez | 28c | 742.42$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.88 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Opelka | 71c | 522.71$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Baez | 13c | 517.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baez | 20c | 508.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Baez | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Baez | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Baez | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Baez | 30c | 327.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Opelka | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Baez | 30c | 193.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Baez | 18c | 175.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Opelka | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Opelka | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Opelka | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Baez | 26c | 134.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baez | 31c | 122.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Baez | 11c | 113.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Baez | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Opelka | 71c | 73.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Baez | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Opelka | 71c | 56.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Opelka | 66c | 42.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.