Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Estoril Praia vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e2e724c3697163e40398326b375c02aa8d66e2ad74e02c7feb679d7b3078a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 50c | 1,647$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.57 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9f…9648backed Yes | 73c | 1,078$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 67c | 1,026$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.59 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 30c | 829.45$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 648.39$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.06 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked Yes | 62c | 320.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 49c | 247.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 67c | 230$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee1…25f8backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 135.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 351 | 54.7%192 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…1790backed Yes | 33c | 126.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 37c | 105.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce51…198cbacked Yes | 75c | 92.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…7136backed Yes | 73c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 82.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 79.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Yes | 73c | 72.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…4f7cbacked Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…234dbacked Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 69.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…9f53backed No | 74c | 60.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 55.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 38c | 50.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 63c | 34.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…b69abacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…b0febacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 25.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…ce79backed No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 71c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estoril Praia vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?this page
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2025-11-07?Yes won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2025-11-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.