College Football · resolved market
Spread: Northern Illinois (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73eb62b786cbecb1fc16c838e34662b8c89b978d54715bffe5eedf640ba18ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Illinoisof Northern Illinois, UMass
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked UMass | 49c | 6,964$3,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.46 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Northern Illinois | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Northern Illinois | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMass | 50c | 4,962$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.99 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Northern Illinois | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked UMass | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Northern Illinois | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed UMass | 53c | 944$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.32 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed UMass | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UMass | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UMass | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Northern Illinois | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked UMass | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked UMass | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UMass | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Northern Illinois | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Northern Illinois | 51c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UMass | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked UMass | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…ec82backed Northern Illinois | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-10.5)this page
- Northern Illinois vs. UMassNorthern Illinois won
- Northern Illinois vs. UMass: O/U 43.5Over won
- O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-11.5)Northern Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.