College Football · resolved market
Spread: Northern Illinois (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b11d6326c7615b55b511cd7cfde18806f58e0b0188a821411a3f1d4bee6c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Illinoisof Northern Illinois, UMass
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Northern Illinois | 48c | 104,186$50,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,176.65 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed UMass | 52c | 44,576$23,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,179.5 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed UMass | 52c | 23,608$12,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,276.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked UMass | 52c | 20,833$10,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,833.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked UMass | 54c | 7,361$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,974.84 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed UMass | 50c | 3,930$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b8e1backed UMass | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed UMass | 55c | 3,638$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 3,430$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMass | 52c | 2,652$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.96 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UMass | 52c | 2,446$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.92 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed UMass | 52c | 1,978$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.38 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 1,500$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed UMass | 51c | 802.63$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Northern Illinois | 50c | 535.41$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.12 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 208.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 204.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked UMass | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed UMass | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed UMass | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked UMass | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked UMass | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked UMass | 54c | 111.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UMass | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed UMass | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed UMass | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed UMass | 54c | 42.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed UMass | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed UMass | 53c | 30.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 29.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-11.5)this page
- Northern Illinois vs. UMassNorthern Illinois won
- Northern Illinois vs. UMass: O/U 43.5Over won
- O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-10.5)Northern Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.