College Football · resolved market
Northern Illinois vs. UMass: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad5297b80b0cf10c1c68241cb1262c0cad0c5112a99e885a84bc91c30e6ec7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 11,928$5,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,321.05 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 10,683$5,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,661.94 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 53c | 8,258$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.62 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…20e9backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…796dbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,687$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.9 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 54c | 1,500$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 894$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.51 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 818.5$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.62 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 782$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.46 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…1e27backed Under | 54c | 653.87$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Under | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 50c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…f8e4backed Under | 54c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Illinois vs. UMass: O/U 43.5this page
- Northern Illinois vs. UMassNorthern Illinois won
- O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-10.5)Northern Illinois won
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-11.5)Northern Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.