Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744cb167a147a2a7dedc751c164a1e3bd06619190204c11db1858e2e2dd96eae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Power Rangers, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Power Rangers | 80c | 1,566$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.79 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Ilbirs eSports | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…2b8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 519.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Power Rangers | 78c | 399.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 291.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.28 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 278.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.26 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 262.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.81 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 220$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…6afdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…4fd0backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 104$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…3a11backed Power Rangers | 80c | 46.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 45.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Power Rangers | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Power Rangers | 77c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 WinnerPower Rangers won
- Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?Yes won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.