Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x747141be50120075c104bf40ba075a4efe442a43557042ea5ecaced33b14ac8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 29c | 1,377$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.22 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 78c | 780$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Down | 36c | 547.19$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.62 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…16bdbacked Down | 24c | 423.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Down | 36c | 391.19$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Down | 18c | 388.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 20c | 327.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…624abacked Down | 25c | 188$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff14…c6cabacked Down | 24c | 173.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 75c | 163.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Up | 74c | 155.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…48a7backed Up | 64c | 150.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…5e9ebacked Up | 75c | 150.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…cebdbacked Up | 61c | 143.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 72c | 125.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c4…4704backed Down | 24c | 119.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…43abbacked Up | 76c | 108.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Down | 23c | 100.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.35per pick | 64cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Down | 16c | 79.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Down | 25c | 75.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…d5c1backed Down | 26c | 72.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…b4c4backed Up | 73c | 65.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…2f96backed Down | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…1dbcbacked Up | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Up | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Down | 28c | 45.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…b6bcbacked Down | 26c | 43.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…cf40backed Up | 76c | 38.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Up | 77c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…0055backed Up | 76c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Up | 79c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…898ebacked Up | 80c | 13.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.