Middle East · resolved market
Strike on Dimonah nuclear base in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74925de46e2bcf52522250d8df0933e3d727ca4989d9f865bf79e7474e38e45a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 1c | 7,105$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 7c | 4,206$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,909$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,471$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 5c | 2,116$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7042…7085backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 5c | 1,370$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…5333backed Yes | 9c | 1,156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…f302backed Yes | 9c | 1,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 10c | 1,069$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 961.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 14c | 729.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2de…90b6backed Yes | 9c | 643.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 4c | 560.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 2c | 557.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 6c | 447.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 4c | 342.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…96e3backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 10c | 287.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…adc5backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 9c | 192$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +539.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 6c | 190.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 175.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…46afbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 16c | 62.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.