TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,250 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates39c19,901$7,761 inLost-$7,761.321,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c9,760$5,952 inWon+$3,807.1111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates38c3,357$1,276 inLost-$1,275.554,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83b…2d16backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c3,060$1,866 inWon+$1,193.271656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates39c3,015$1,164 inLost-$1,164.171,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c2,883$1,787 inWon+$1,095.543,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c2,500$1,530 inWon+$9705,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c2,222$1,355 inWon+$866.5873748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,449$883 inWon+$565.6110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,053$648 inWon+$405.916,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c962.53$587 inWon+$375.392,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c300$183 inWon+$1178,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c245.9$150 inWon+$95.948851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c243$149 inWon+$94.1895252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c199$121 inWon+$77.611,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c196.74$120 inWon+$76.7353655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c157.58$98 inWon+$59.883,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c147.54$90 inWon+$57.5446255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c146$89 inWon+$56.941,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c130.09$80 inWon+$49.935149%25 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c112.9$70 inWon+$42.967449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c97.78$60 inWon+$37.8228553%151 W · 134 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c65.57$40 inWon+$25.5735353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c60$37 inWon+$23.12,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c50.59$30 inWon+$20.2417253.5%92 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c49.18$30 inWon+$19.1846152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c49.17$30 inWon+$19.1822450%112 W · 112 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c40.86$15 inLost-$15.1212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c40.86$26 inWon+$15.121,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c26.23$16 inWon+$10.2352947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x858c…84b1backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c22.95$14 inWon+$8.957350.7%37 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c22.26$14 inWon+$8.681,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c20.33$12 inWon+$7.939755.7%54 W · 43 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.